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The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2009 concluded on April 19.

During the forum, attendees from China and abroad focused much attention on China’s economic trends. Although some expressed concern as to whether or not China will be able to achieve its goal of 8 percent GDP growth, most were confident in China’s economic recovery and believed that Asia, especially China, will have the ability to get out of the crisis.

China’s economy

China’s economic stimulus package achieves preliminary results

Recently released economic data for the first quarter brought encouraging news to BFA attendees, showing that China’s economy is beginning to show positive signs. Li Rongrong, Chairman of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council of China, said on April 19 at BFA that, in March, operation indicators of enterprises under the direct control of the Central Government noticeably picked up, with profits increasing 26 percent year-on-year and 86 percent month-on-month. He expressed that the measures adopted by the Chinese government to cope with the financial crisis have already take effect.

Although he is holding a “cautiously optimistic” view of the future, Li said the recovery of the economy might be beyond people’s imagination because the final outcome depends on joint efforts by the government and enterprises.

In the current situation in which developed economies are experiencing negative growth while the growth of emerging economies is generally slowing down, according to Edgar Hotard, Chairman of Monitor Group (China), the Chinese economy’s 6.1 percent growth rate in the first quarter is sufficient to shore up the confidence of China and other countries in the world.

Zhou Xiaochuan, Director of the People’s Bank of China, also believes that the positive financial policies and moderately relaxed monetary policies implemented in November 2008 have helped prevent the Chinese economy from sliding downward too fast.

When will the economy recover?

Emerging economies are likely to step out of the crisis first

Recently, some international organizations have successively lowered their forecasts for this year’s global economic situation. The International Monetary Fund predicted that the global economy would drop by 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent, with the economies of developed countries slipping by 3 percent to 3.5 percent. The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted that the global economy would drop by 1.6 percent while global trade volume would drop by 9 percent.

However, the Chinese economy achieving 6.1 percent growth in the first quarter has indeed struck a bright spark for the global economy on its path to recovery.

“Many people who issued very pessimistic research reports earlier in the year have now changed their tones,” said Li Jiange, Chairman of China International Capital Corporation Limited.

Klaus Engel, Chairman of the Executive Board of Evonik Industries AG, said in order to cope with the financial crisis, the Chinese government has adopted many effective measures, and everyone has reasons to believe that Asia’s emerging economies, especially China, will soon recover to restart economic growth.

Pascal Lamy, Director-General of the WTO, said China has been very active in financing international trade. If other countries are willing to make the same efforts as China, they are likely to tackle the international financial crisis through trade financing.

In the first quarter of the year, China’s economy generally performed better than expected. Just like Li Jiange and Klaus Engel, most Chinese and foreigners who attended BFA expressed optimism that China’s economy will take the lead in escaping the crisis.

When will the global economy and the Chinese economy bottom out?

The global economy will recover early next year or sometime a little later next year, believes Nouriel Roubini, professor at the Leonard N. Stern School of Business of New York University. Once the global economy recovers, he claims, growth will happen very quickly, especially in emerging economies like China and India.

“It is now time to listen to voices from Asia, from China and from emerging economies,” stated Long Yongtu, Secretary General of BFA. China and other emerging Asian economies will take the lead in stepping out of the crisis and onto a path of healthy, rapid development once again.

“Risks” and “opportunities” coexist

China should seize new opportunities for development

The international financial crisis is still spreading, problems existing in the financial system remain unresolved, the real economy situation is still severe and trade protectionism is gaining momentum. A World Bank report revealed that from last Novembers G20 summit in Washington to this February, 17 countries from the G20 adopted a total of 47 trade protectionism measures.

In these conditions, China’s economic and social development will face many difficulties. China’s imports and exports will not improve much as long as major economies have not recovered, expressed Zeng Peiyan, Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of the BFA.

“The domestic economy is in a crucial period when the development pattern is changing and the economic structure is being adjusted, and new challenges posed by the crisis combine with existing contradictions to make things more difficult for China to solve problems and seek stable development,” Yao Gang, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission pointed out.

Despite heavy pressure, opportunities also exist for China during the crisis. Looking back at the experience gained and lessons learned from the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Li Jiange said that this international financial crisis might be ushering in another opportunity for development in China.

Meanwhile, attendees also suggested that China pay more attention to the quality of economic development and takes advantage of the crisis to promote a more balanced model for economic growth.

Fan Gang, Director of the National Economic Research Institute, said that whether or not China’s economy can maintain eight percent growth this year is not important. The key is whether the trend of growth is healthy and whether it can lay the foundation for balanced development in the future that will pave the way for further recovery next year.

“China will seize this historic opportunity to advance strategic adjustments to the economic structure, to accelerate reform and opening-up and to realize stable and rapid economic development that will contribute to the world’s economic recovery,” said Zeng Peiyan.

Japan’s game maker Nintendo Co. said on Thursday that its group net profit in fiscal 2008 rose 8.5 percent from the previous year to a record high of 279.09 billion yen (2.8 billion U.S. dollars), bucking the corporate trend of declining profits amid global economic downturn.

Nintendo’s strong performance was due to the popularity of its DS and Wii game consoles, as well as the software to go with them, the company said.

The company’s operating profit increased 14 percent to 555.26 billion yen (5.6 billion dollars) for the business year ended March 31.

It is the fifth straight year that Nintendo’s net profit has reached a record high, reflecting a robust growth of world’s game market.

Nintendo is eyeing further profit growth for the current business year. It projects that its group net profit will rise 7.5 percent from the previous year to 300 billion yen (3 billion dollars) for fiscal 2009.

The European Union (EU) and China should work together to ward off potential surge of protectionism amid the global economic slump, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said on Thursday.

“China and the EU should stand firm against any form of protectionism for the sake of a global economic recovery,” Wang said in an opening remark at a high-level economic and trade dialogue between the EU and China, two major trading powers in the world.

The EU is now China’s largest trading partner, while China is the second largest of the EU. Trade volume between them grew to 425.58 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, an increase of 19.5 percent over the previous year despite the impact of the financial crisis, according to figures from China’s customs authorities.

Wang said the two sides have every reason to avoid protectionism, either for the urgent need to work out of the current crisis or due to the irreversible trend of globalization.

He warned that protectionism, featuring the pursuit of benefits for one country at the expense of others, would in the end protect nobody, but lead to retaliation and make the crisis even worse, which has been proved by the history.

The world economy paid a heavy price for the prevalence of trade protectionism during the Great Depression in the 1930s, which resulted in the contraction of global trade by two thirds.

As the world economy plunged into its first-ever recession since the Second World War in the wake of the financial crisis, there is an increasing risk that more governments would resort to protectionist measures.

For the EU, there has been more frequent use of anti-dumping measures against Chinese products, which is a major concern of the Chinese side.

Wang urged the EU to take full account of China’s concern and make real efforts to remove trade and investment barriers, adding the economies of China and the EU have much to offer each other and the two-way trade holds a huge potential.

He in particular called on the EU to relax restrictions on the transfer of advanced green technology to China so as to promote sustainable development.

“The EU has an edge in new energy, energy-efficient building and waste recycling. There is a vast market in China for those green investments,” Wang said.

The high-level economic and trade dialogue, which is held annually between the EU and China, kicked off in Brussels on Thursday. The two-dialogue brought together key policy makers from both sides, including Wang and EU Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton.

A further eight EU Commissioners and a total of 12 Chinese ministers or vice-ministers are participating in the far-reaching talks, which cover a series of topics, such as trade, investment, small and medium-sized companies, customs cooperation, sustainable development, product safety and intellectual property rights.

It is the second time that the EU and China hold the high-level economic and trade dialogue, which was agreed at a Sino-EU summit in November 2007. The first meeting was held in Beijing in April 2008.

A new Palestinian government led by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad was sworn in Tuesday in the West Bank of Ramallah. Palestinians and local observers believe that Fayyad is walking on a thorny political road ahead with many challenges.

The major difficulty facing Fayyad and his government is that he is stuck in the internal Palestinian crisis — the political rift between the geographically divided West Bank, dominated by President Mahmoud Abbas, and the Gaza Strip, where Hamas keeps tight control.

Fatah movement loyal to Abbas officially decided to boycott Fayyad’s new government, although Fayyad and Abbas guaranteed that once a unity government including both Fatah and Hamas is formed, the Palestinian government will immediately resign.

Fatah’s decision to officially stay away from the new government, but allowed Fatah members to join as independents came against the backdrop that it is engaged in reconciliation talks with Hamas for the painful delivery of a unity government acceptable to the international community, local observers said.

Other difficulties that are challenging Fayyad are the Israeli policy of settlement expansion in the West Bank and the resumption of peace negotiations with the government of Benjamin Netanyahu that basically rejects the vision of the two-sate solution.

One more hurdle on Fayyad’s political road is the financial crisis that the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) suffers from. He has to make sure that he covers all the running coasts, mainly paying the salaries of around 120,000 civil and security servants in both Gaza and the West Bank.

Moreover, Palestinian observers also questioned the agenda of the government besides its legitimacy.

Ali Obaidat, an analyst from the West Bank, told Xinhua by telephone that “this government should stick more to the issues of the people and the home, made change to the better and enjoyed a level of transparency.”

Obaidat criticized the government of “leaving behind a big address and one of the national principles, which is the prisoners’ portfolio.”

Fayyad initially intended to include 10 Fatah members in his government, two of whom decided not to join. One of them is the Minister of Prisoners’ Affairs Issa Qaraqe’e, whose absence could be a result of Fatah’s boycott, Obaidat said.

However, the government’s swearing-in ceremony should not have taken place without the presence of a prisoners’ minister “since his portfolio was one of the most important ones,” he said.

Palestinians in general said that the new government and the political and public din that accompanied its formation have neither brought good news to the people nor assured them of a clear term.

Hamas believes that the reshuffle of the government in the West Bank without its involvement means nothing.

“As long as Hamas doesn’t recognize any government formed in Ramallah by Fayyad or anybody else, it will keep saying that these governments are illegal since it hasn’t taken its legitimacy from the parliament it dominates,” said Ahmed Zaqout, a Palestinian analyst from Gaza.

Hamas and Fatah had tried five rounds of dialogue in Cairo. The latest round which was held early this week failed to agree on substantial issues related to security, elections and government.

Ibraheem Abrash, a scholar who has held the culture portfolio for seven months in the former Fayyad-led caretaker government before he resigned and returned to the Gaza Strip, said “the recent reshuffle changed nothing but faces.”

“But the judgment on the government can be based on its trends and since Salam Fayyad is the premier, his trend and way will predominate and the government agenda will be similar to the previous one,” Abrash explained.

Though some of the Palestinian factions joined the government, they will not be able to have that much influence on its work “because they are small groups and the main big powers (Hamas and Fatah) are absent from this government.”

He said “Fayyad’s government will enjoy less popularity, legitimacy and support than his former caretaker administration. At least, Fatah adopted the former government though it did not actually participate,” Abrash said.

Abbas insisted on forming the government because he wants to show his clout over the West Bank before he visits Washington later this month, Abrash said. “So he can go there and say that he has come after settling the internal Palestinian situation.”

It seems that Abbas has reached a conclusion that the reconciliation talks between his party and Hamas will take longer time and the Palestinians have to be more patient to wait to see whether Egypt is able to oblige Fatah and Hamas to sign an agreement on July 7 as planned, the observers said.

Singapore’s consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, down from 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, official data showed on Thursday.

According to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry, the slowdown in CPI inflation falls within expectations and has mainly been due to a downward correction of global commodity prices from the peaks in 2008.

“Domestic cost pressures have started to ease in line with the recession and lower commodity prices. These trends are expected to persist and CPI inflation is estimated to continue to fall in the coming months.”

For the whole year of 2009, the ministry said the forecast for CPI inflation is maintained at minus 1.0 to 0 percent.

Singapore’s consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, down from 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, official data showed on Thursday.

According to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry, the slowdown in CPI inflation falls within expectations and has mainly been due to a downward correction of global commodity prices from the peaks in 2008.

“Domestic cost pressures have started to ease in line with the recession and lower commodity prices. These trends are expected to persist and CPI inflation is estimated to continue to fall in the coming months.”

For the whole year of 2009, the ministry said the forecast for CPI inflation is maintained at minus 1.0 to 0 percent.

In the first quarter of 2009,Internet advertising revenues in the United States dropped 5 percent from the same period a year earlier to about 5.5 billion U.S. dollars, said a study released on Friday.

While releasing the figures, executives at Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), which conducted the study with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, noted that Internet advertising has been less hit by economic recession than other media sectors.

“Interactive advertising has taken its rightful place as a fixture on marketing plans across sectors, which means we aren’t immune to broader economic trends,” Randall Rothenberg, president of the IAB, said in a statement.

“Nevertheless, consumers are spending more and more time with interactive media. For this, and other reasons, interactive media continues to gain share of marketing spend,” he added.

Rothenberg predicted that Internet advertising revenues will resume growth as the U.S. economic climate improves.

“Interactive advertising is the most accountable way to reach consumers — and in this economy, digital media will be a core component of any successful marketing campaign,” he said.

IAB, a trade association for interactive marketing, is comprised of more than 375 media and technology companies who are responsible for selling 86 percent of online advertising in the United States.

Extreme weather, drought, heavy rainfall and increasing temperatures are a fact of life in many parts of the U.S. as a result of human-induced climate change, according to a new report released Tuesday. These and other changes will continue and likely increase in intensity into the future, the scientists found.

Researchers representing 13 U.S. government science agencies, major universities and research institutes produced the study, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.” Commissioned in 2007, it is the most comprehensive report to date on national climate change, offering the latest information on rising temperatures, heavy downpours, extreme weather, sea level changes and other results of climate change in the U.S.

The 190-page report is a product of the interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program, led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It is written in accessible language, intended to better inform members of the public and policymakers about the social, environmental and economic costs of climate change. It focuses on effects by region and details how the nation’s transportation, agriculture, health, water and energy sectors will be affected in the future.

“This report provides the concrete scientific information that says unequivocally that climate change is happening now and it’s happening in our own backyards and it affects the kind of things people care about,” Administrator of NOAA Jane Lubchenco said Tuesday at a White House briefing.

Some of the key findings of the report are that global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Climate changes are underway and include increased stresses on water supplies, challenges to livestock and crop production, risks to coastal areas from rising sea levels and storm surges, health risks, quality of life issues in urban areas and permanent changes to entire ecosystems.

One area of focus in the report is the southwestern U.S., where warming has been as rapid as anywhere in the country.

“It is becoming clear that the Southwest is the front line of ongoing climate change in the country, and the projections are for a much more serious set of problems if climate change isn’t slowed dramatically,” said Jonathan Overpeck in a press release from the University of Arizona (UA).

Overpeck is a professor of geosciences and atmospheric sciences at the UA. He is also the lead author on the Southwest section of the report.

The report also highlighted several key issues. Scarcity will increase demand for water and likely generate conflicts over who gets a share. Warmer, drier conditions also make the region more susceptible to wildfires and invasive species, which not only threaten property owners but biological diversity in sensitive areas. Those conditions also increase the dangers associated with flooding.

“The greatest warming and impacts on water supplies are projected to affect the Colorado River Basin with a bulls-eye on Arizona. As a state, we have as much at stake as any other state in the country,” Overpeck said.

A phenomenon known as the urban heat-island effect is also projected to exacerbate summertime temperature increases, which the report said are projected to be greater than the annual average. Droughts, which are frequent in the Southwest, could become more severe. The cycle of increasing temperatures and decreased water supplies represent a challenge to the region which continues to lead the country in population growth.

Demand also for air conditioning in warmer weather increases the demand for electricity and the risks for brownouts and blackouts as utilities strain to keep up.

Farmers and ranchers also face risks. Besides less water for crops and herds, warmer temperatures also are detrimental to some specialty crops that depend on a period of colder temperatures in order to set fruit for the next harvest.

Recreation and tourism, two vital components to the regional economy, could also take a hit. Ski resorts, especially those on the southern parts of the western U.S., would have substantially shorter seasons. Hunting, fishing and boating activities could also feel the pinch.

In a press conference on Tuesday, University of Illinois Professor of Atmospheric Sciences Don Wuebbles, a contributor to the report, outlined the current and predicted effects of climate change in the Midwest U.S.

Average temperatures have risen in the Midwest in recent decades, Wuebbles said, especially in winter. The growing season has been extended by one week. Heavy downpours are now twice as frequent as they were a century ago, he said, and the Midwest has experienced two, record-breaking floods in the past 15 years.

These trends are expected to continue into the future. Average annual temperatures are expected to increase by about two degrees Fahrenheit over the next few decades, and by as much as seven to 10 degrees by the end of the century, he said, with more warming projected for summer than winter.

As temperatures and humidity increases, heat waves, reduced air quality and insect-borne diseases are more likely to occur. Heavy downpours can overload drainage systems and water treatment facilities, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases, he said.

The Great Lakes, which contain 20 percent of the planet’s fresh surface water, will also be affected by the changing climate, Wuebbles said. Depending on the extent of climate change, average water levels in the Great Lakes could drop by as much as two feet in this century. This would affect beaches, coastal ecosystems, fish populations, dredging requirements and shipping.

The report focuses primarily on the impacts of climate change, but it also addresses activities that could potentially mitigate those effects and adapt to changes as well. Measures in populated areas include rainwater harvesting and better urban planning to reduce urban heat island effects. In rural areas, more effective planning and management would help to slow the growing wildfire risk.

“The report lays out what is ahead for our country if we fail to act to curb climate change, and if we fail to act aggressively,” Overpeck said. “Time is running out.”

Kim Jong Il, top leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), called for technical updating in factories to increase the nation’s power, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)said on Wednesday.

Technology, ideology and army were the “three pillars” for the DPRK to build a “great prosperous powerful nation,” said Kim who inspected Hamhung Semiconductor Materials Factory and the Hamhung Branch of the State Academy of Sciences in Hamhung city, South Hamgyong province, the KCNA reported, ithout giving the date of the inspections.

He encouraged scientists and technicians to do more research and study the trend of modern technology.

The African Union on Tuesday called on the international community to re-energize its support towards the transitional federal government of Somalia (TFG) so as to help stabilize the Horn of Africa nation.

AU Special Representative to Somalia Nicolas Bwakira also called on actors in Somalia to work in close collaboration with other international partners to ensure that there is proper coordination of capacity building assistance to the Somali government.

Bwakira told a two-day meeting in Nairobi that challenges are quite enormous, and that tackling them successfully would require international community’s firm commitment and continued partnership with the government and people of Somalia.

“It is also vital that we approach this task in full consideration of the priorities identified by the TFG itself,” the AU envoy told the Joint AU, IGAD and UN Political Office for Somalia Technical/Experts Meeting on Capacity Building Support to Somalia which kicked off in Nairobi on Tuesday.

The meeting is deliberating on the priority capacity building needs of the TFG and participants hope to identify practical and innovative ways of addressing those pressing needs of the government.

Bwakira said the lawless nation has undergone years of violent conflict that has completely destroyed its state institutions, lamenting that a climate of instability has prevailed in the country.

The security sector, he said, has been in shambles and the absence of the rule of law has remained a norm.

“It is this unfortunate trend of events that the AU, IGAD, UN and all other partners of Somalia are trying to reverse through our common support to the Djibouti Peace Process,” he said.

Fighters from Al-Shabaab and Hezbul Islam, an allied faction, have been mounting attacks against forces loyal to Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a moderate Islamist elected in January by the expanded Somali parliament following successful UN-brokered peace talks between the Somali government and a faction led by Ahmed.

Al-Shabaab now effectively controls almost the entire south andcentral portions of Somalia except for few pockets run by Hezbul Islam, which also partly controls the central Somali town of Beledweyn, the last stronghold of pro-government forces in central Somalia.

“The undeniable fact, however, is that despite our significant achievements in the peace process, there is still a long way to goin re-establishing functional institutions of state in Somalia. This is exactly why we must continue to support the transitional government by assisting the government in building its capacity invital areas of need,” Bwakira said.

The AU envoy emphasized the need for the pan-African body to coordinate all ongoing and future training support and other services pledged by AU member states to the TFG in order to avoid duplication and wastage of the scarce resources.

He encouraged the AU and other partners to re-energize their resolve to support the TFG by initiating or reactivating their bi-lateral co-operations with the government.

“We call upon bilateral and multilateral institutions and governmental institutions to contribute the requisite expertise and resources to support capacity building of the TFG in key areas, with specific focus on the security sector,” Bwakira said.

To achieve coordination of capacity building support to the TFG,Bwakira said it is important that “we the partners assign responsibilities amongst ourselves to avoid overlapping of activities or inputs by different partner countries or institutions. And that is certainly why this meeting could not have come at a better time.”

“I would like to point out here that this initiative is not about undertaking the long-term post war-reconstruction and development support to Somalia. On the contrary, what we seek to undertake here is a stop-gap capacity building initiative to help the TFG get on its feet. This represents a starting point to rebuilding the institutions of state.”

Bwakira said it is about making key institutions of the security sector functional, such as the paramilitary and the police.

“Additionally, the humanitarian and human rights dimension need to be addressed through the provision of human rights training to the Somali paramilitary and police forces,” he said.

The regional bloc, IGAD, which brokered peace that culminated in the formation of the transitional government in the Horn of Africa nation, is spearheading efforts of stabilizing Somalia.

Under President Sheikh Ahmed, a moderate Islamist and a former insurgent leader who took office in January, the Somali governmenthas been trying to reconcile with other Islamist factions, but has vowed to take a harder stance in recent weeks, as insurgents have continued to carry out attacks.

Somalia, a nation of about 8 million people, has experienced almost constant conflict since the collapse of its central government in January 1991.